Municipal bonds are no longer boring fixed income investments. Lately, wild and unpredictable might be more fitting descriptors. The extreme gyrations in muni prices and yields over the past few months have been dizzying. Financial advisors seeking to mitigate interest rate risk while earning tax-free income should consider an actively managed municipal bond strategy that combines rigorous, relative value credit research within a flexible laddered approach.

Record inflows despite unknowns

COVID-19 has brought the U.S. economy to its knees, infecting the municipal credit market with uncertainty as mandatory closures force many municipalities into shutdown mode—no conventions, no sports, no tourism—casting a dark cloud over the repayment prospects for muni debtholders. Yet, relatively attractive yields and the quest for income have led to robust demand for municipal bond funds. The 10-year AAA Muni normally trades at a discount to the 10-year U.S. Treasury (see chart below). For most of this year it has traded at a premium. The U.S. Federal Reserve has increased the appetite for munis by stepping in to lend to troubled municipalities via the Municipal Liquidity Facility. Many investors appear to believe the Fed’s intervention has created a muni market version of the “Powell Put,” providing a potentially false sense of security and enticement to venture further out the risk spectrum. Buyer beware.

Title: 10Yr Muni yield as a percentage of 10Yr U.S. Treasury yield (Jan 1, 2007 – July 28, 2020)

Source: Bloomberg

How low can yields go?

The record-breaking inflows have driven up muni prices, sinking yields to historic lows. It’s been a wild ride. The 10-year AAA Muni went from 82 basis points (bps) on March 9, to 288 bps on March 23rd to 69 bps on July 29, a record low and a swing of 424 bps in roughly four months. Other maturity tenures have experienced similar swings.

Title: 10 Year AAA Municipal Yields (June 30, 1998 – June 30, 2020)

Source: Bloomberg, Thornburg

A nimble approach and a flexible ladder for durable income in all rate environments

Thorough bond-by-bond research and nimble portfolio management that employs an active laddered strategy can help provide attractive tax-free income in today’s low-rate, highly volatile market. Finding mispriced relative values amid record low yields is crucial. It’s also critical to selectively stagger the portfolio’s bond maturities so that inflows from coupons and maturing issues are judiciously– rather than mechanically– invested in select rungs of the ladder, ensuring that any pick-up in yield at the farther end of the ladder is worth the market price risk.

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